Do you know your risk of ruin at poker?
Poker Evolver is now able to calculate your risk of ruin. With this value you see what is the probability that you will lose all your poker bankroll with your current playing style and stakes. You are also able to conclude whether you are playing at too high levels.
Risk of Ruin is calculated from our test data where it is not very high 
Risk of Ruin
Risk of ruin shows the probability of loosing your entire bankroll. If you are interested about maths, Risk of Ruin is calculated at Poker Evolver using the following equation:
Angel Largay has an article about Bankroll Management using this equation. Mason Malmuth has also comprehensive explanation at his book Gambling Theory and other topic. Information about calculating hourly win rate and hourly standard deviation can be found from Poker Evolver User’s Manual.
This equation is not 100% accurate in the real world because it assumes that your win rate and hourly standard deviation are constant. In reality these both change all the time. It also takes many thousand hands before the equation gives good results but that’s not a problem to us, is it?
When are you playing at too high stakes?
It depends how big risk you are willing to take. I would say however that if your risk of ruin is bigger than 1%, you should consider playing at lower stakes. If you can’t continue playing after losing your current roll, you can’t take very big risks.
If you want to move up fast and are not so worried going broke, your risk of ruin can be higher. In this case remember that scary money does not win.
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Matti
Poker Evolver - Poker Statistics Software
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